As we look back on the timeline of humans, we tend to classify time periods as “ages”. Examples are the Bronze Age, the Age of Enlightenment, and more recently, the Information Age. I believe that we are currently in the Age of Unexpected Consequences. What does that mean?
It seems to me that one of the major factors that most people consider when making a decision is money. Or votes, which is a combination of money and power. The critical question is usually along the lines of “How much is that going to cost?” Very rarely is the equally important question asked: “How much will it cost not to do that?”
One of the tougher jobs for a parent is teaching a child that actions have consequences. “No Billy, you can’t jump off the roof holding an umbrella, even though Mary Poppins can.” Most of us reach maturity with a healthy respect for consequences of short term actions, but not so much the long term.
This was exemplified for me at the start of my career, fresh out of college, by my neighbors. With the exception of myself, everyone in the neighborhood was a former miner, who had fled coal mining for work on the automobile assembly line. The wages were better, the work was easier, and there were benefits. As my wife and I were struggling to find our footing, everyone else on our little circle was in an orgy of buying toys for their kids and themselves. The mantra was “Don’t tell me how much it costs, just tell me how much a month.” Even those injured on the job continued to spend wildly, at least until the disability payments ran out. Shortly after we moved to a new job in another state, assembly line jobs began moving out of that area. The factories employing my former neighbors closed, and the city became the subject of a Michael Moore documentary.
More recently there have been movements to reduce funding for police, while decriminalizing things like shoplifting. To combat drug abuse, some cities have begun to provide “safe” drugs and paraphernalia, along with places to use them. The result has been the transformation of some of our finest cities into crime-ridden dystopias with residents and businesses fleeing. This probably could have been predicted by any graduate of Sesame Street. Many proponents of these plans are now changing their minds and asking for increased police protection.
At the beginning of the 20th century, cheap energy from the seemingly endless petroleum reserves allowed great progress in improving life for people around the world. Cities in the US were happy to sell their streetcar lines to the companies making automobiles. The car companies in turn shut them down to force people to own cars. After World War II, the masses of returning veterans were looking for affordable housing. Builders capitalized on this demand, buying cheaper land outside the cities. While the creation of suburbs" created affordable housing, it also reinforced the need for a car. In very little time, automobile manufacturing became the largest contributor to our Gross Domestic Product.
By the mid-1970s we knew that we had reached peak production of oil. Older wells were going dry. Even those still producing were bringing less to the surface. It became necessary to start augmenting the supply with purchases from other countries. Car companies that had paid little attention to fuel efficiency suddenly had to deal with competition from Japan. These imports used less gas and cost less to buy. Changes were made by the “Big 3” automakers to meet the challenge, population increases kept up demand, and they were able to remain on top for a time. Automation helped in the effort, even as it removed jobs.
About this time big business took notice of the fact that goods club be made in other countries, especially those in Asia, for much less. The process of “off-shoring” manufacturing grew to the point that we currently no longer have the ability to manufacture much of anything in the good old USA. We’ve also lost thousands of jobs. What little manufacturing did remain is largely owned by foreign companies. Technology has been leveraged to optimize the process. Toyota, for example, was able to schedule delivery of car parts made in Asia to be delivered within four hours of being put into a car in Kentucky. The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted this system. The exposed weakness of overly-long supply chains continues to be a problem for many companies.
As the 21st century rolled in, we realized that we had some big, and growing, problems. Our entire civilization was structured around cheap energy from oil. Getting the oil was becoming a lot harder, and much more expensive. The weather seemed to be getting warmer and weirder. All the things that a few scientists warned about some 50 years ago are suddenly here. No worries, technology will save us!
Making cars that run on electricity will lessen demand for oil, but the supply of it will continue to go down. Some studies have shown that building these electric cars consumes more oil than driving them saves. Making batteries for the electric cars requires minerals that are mostly found in other countries, some hostile toward us. In many cases they are extracted by children. Like oil, these minerals are not being recreated. When they are gone, that’s it, game over.
In an effort to limit carbon dioxide production, moves are being made to eliminate coal and gas-powered electricity. Nuclear energy, while not producing greenhouse gases, is potentially lethal as exemplified by the Fukushima disaster. The answer is thought to be wind-powered electricity generation, as well as solar panels. The state of Texas has managed to get 40% of its electricity generated that way.
Well, at least until the “Snowpocalypse” of 2020, when wind generation ground to a halt because of an unusual ice storm. The resulting rotating blackouts created lots of problems for everyone. Now, in 2023, we have a record hot summer. When it gets hot, the wind dies down. Solar panels generate nothing when the sun goes down. As air conditioners run almost continuously, the prospect of rotating blackouts again becomes a distinct possibility.
Wind and solar electricity producers harbor a dirty little secret. This type of power is sold as renewable. In truth it is replaceable. A perfect example of this is in Sweetwater, Texas. There you can find 30 acres of wind turbine blades stacked in a field. These fiberglass blades are also stored in locations in Iowa, ostensibly for recycling that has yet to be done. Rule changes by the IRS allow for 10 extra years of tax credits when turbines are refurbished. So some of the blades in this dump are there prematurely because of greed and poor government policy. Solar panels also have a relatively short life, and are very difficult and expensive to recycle. Most are made in China, again relying on a long, complex, and fragile supply chain.
To be fair, not all of these things could have been anticipated when the decisions around them were made. When oil was first discovered it seemed that the supply was inexhaustible. The endless stream of marvels of technology made life ever better. Poverty was being reduced and our future was nothing but prosperity from endless growth. It was easy to believe that there were no limits, that we could keep growing and improving forever.
Where do we go from here? There are no easy answers. We know now that infinite growth is impossible, and we’re still experiencing the consequences of trying to achieve it. There are many very complex and interconnected systems in play, and it’s hard to predict what will happen next. Life in the future is very probably going to be very different to what it is now. That makes it difficult to prepare.
The rich and powerful have already begun to make elaborate preparations. New Zealand is a popular place to build a home to flee to. Here in the US old missile silos are being repurposed as luxury shelters, with lavish furnishings and amenities. Some folks are building homes in remote locations, “off the grid”, with their own water supply and electricity from solar power.
An opulent shelter may protect you for a time, but it doesn’t seem likely that one could store enough food and water to last for more than a year or two. Building a cabin or cottage where you can grow your own food is a better option. But even in that scenario, solar panels and batteries wear out. Replacement may not be possible in very remote locations, especially if supply chains have broken down.
Since we cannot know what’s coming, it’s not very practical to spend a lot of time and money preparing for something that is completely unknown. What we can do is to prepare for things to be much more local. Get to know your neighbors. Learn each other’s skills. Knowing who can do what can be very useful, especially in emergencies. Start a garden if possible. Car pool when shopping to reduce gas use. Whatever is coming, it will be better for all of us if we face it together and help one another.
I have a feeling we will be reverting to hunting for our food.... those of us (myself not included) who possess such skills. We think we've advanced but in reality we've forgotten the basics.
This was thoughtful and important, hard to read and really good, Jim. Well done.